The offseason is back and better than ever. Shocking trades, buyouts, and expansion draft decisions have ‘Hockey Twitter’ in a frenzy.
Leafs fans, in particular, have had reasons to feel positive for the first time in almost two months - or at least a sort of emotions.
The team acquired Jared McCann, a 24-year old centre/left-wing coming off 32 points in 43 games last season, for Filip Hallander and a seventh-round draft pick.
If any depth move could provide this frustrated fan base with hope, it’s this one. A proven two-way forward with skill - the type of player the Maple Leafs lacked in the playoffs. This feeling of hope would only last one night, however, because fans woke up the following morning to learn the Leafs will only be protecting four forwards, none of which being Jared McCann or Alex Kerfoot, instead opting to protect four defensemen, including Justin Holl.
The idea is simple: minimize loss at the expansion draft by acquiring a cheap asset more enticing to the Kraken, thus escaping with the same NHL roster, or one better, than they had before the draft.
If McCann is taken, the draft will have only cost Hallander (not a likely 2021-22 roster candidate) and a 7th. If Dermott is taken, they will have added significant value at forward. If Kerfoot is taken, he has already been replaced with a younger, cheaper, and better third-line center. Alternatively, they could make a deal with Seattle to persuade them to select Kerfoot or Dermott by agreeing to trade them another player to their liking for additional assets.
Elliotte Friedman speculates Toronto and Pittsburgh knew Seattle liked both Kerfoot and McCann, so they made the move to ensure the Kraken could only acquire one while they maintain or acquire assets themselves.
It’s a cruel tease, one Leafs fans don’t deserve, to acquire such an intriguing forward only to protect others, but it’s difficult to argue with Dubas’s asset management.
What can be argued with, however, is the decision to protect Justin Holl. Although they have assured a net-positive result from the draft, I would argue they have missed an opportunity to guarantee a better roster following the expansion draft.
In the midst of this plan is questionable player evaluation. In my opinion, Jared McCann is the most valuable asset in this conversation and Justin Holl is the least.
Pacing a 60-point season over 82 games, McCann’s on-ice numbers were even more impressive. His elite transition game abling the Penguins to tilt the ice is reflected in his team-leading 54.66CF%. His two-way game produced the Penguin’s best xGF% of 54.54, among players with at least 300 five-on-five minutes.
His playmaking and finishing ability stand out as well, suggesting he could be an additional threat in the top-6 and create more space for the Leafs’ big four. Make no mistake, McCann is a superior player to Kerfoot.
Alex Kerfoot performed well in the playoffs and can be an effective penalty killer, but over a large sample gives up more chances than he gets, while making more money. With the departure of Hyman, wanting to hang onto a penalty killer makes sense, but McCann is the better player in all other regards and can be added to a powerplay coming off an awful season.
The Leafs should have locked in this upgrade and given the Kraken the choice between Kerfoot and Holl instead.
Some suggest the Leafs cannot risk breaking up the Holl-Muzzin shutdown pair, but it’s clear Holl has been sheltered. Despite having an elite d-partner, he has produced poor results and has been the most noticeably bad defenceman during the back half of each of the last two seasons.
Holl suppresses chances off entries effectively using his size to keep players to the outside or knock them off the puck, but his below-average footwork and awareness leave openings and chances below the hashmarks far too often. For these reasons, I struggle to understand the concern about not being able to replace him in-house with Dermott, Sandin, or Liljegren.
Dermott plays an aggressive style, which highlights his turnovers, but ensures the Leafs have more chances and possession while he’s on the ice. Liljegren plays similarly, with effective gap control and more offensive talents, and Sandin has shown poise and elite puck movement so far. How can we say these players will not be able to replicate Holl’s “success,” if not produce more, alongside Muzzin?
Holl has shined in a few battles with the opposing team’s best players, but this does not make him a rare asset. His more common results suggest he is no more than a bottom-pair player, and protecting bottom-pair assets is not a necessity.
The Leafs’ defence has gone from below average to excellent recently, but the Leafs went years without a player like Jake Muzzin or T.J. Brodie, and last season they had both, combined with the experience and offensive abilities of Morgan Rielly. Depth only added to the strength and depth is always attainable.
Having acquired McCann, Dubas had the opportunity to upgrade the forward group while maintaining his depth on defence, anyway, assuming the Kraken would have taken Kerfoot. Even if they do prefer Holl - and even instead of the younger and more talented Dermott - he would have at least added value at forward to use in trade, if not on the ice.
Perhaps Dubas wants to minimize change around his top two players because it was only they who underperformed. But no change can be just as risky.
An alternative has been presented to the fans in broad daylight. The acquisition of McCann is proof Dubas had an opportunity to improve the team this offseason but chose otherwise. Will he find another opportunity? Or will he bet the depth he chose to protect doesn’t cost the team in the playoffs when Matthews and Marner do perform to expectations? I don’t know what else is in store this offseason, I just know this is not the time for the Leafs to be passive.
Stats retrieved from eliteprospects.com and naturalstattrick.com
Top photo retrieved from NHL.com