The first day of NHL free agency came and went and the Maple Leafs, unlike in past years, didn’t provide fans with a splash of hope.
From John Tavares to Tyson Barrie (oops) to T.J. Brodie, the Leafs have spent July 1st (or the equivalent of) adding what they believe to be the next breakthrough in the puzzle. This year, however, was primarily about filling out the roster. Dubas appears to be indicating the puzzle has been completed, or at least the pieces that depict an image of success.
The first indication was the decision to acquire Jared McCann for Kerfoot insurance, to protect Justin Holl, instead of bolstering their top-six. A head-scratching decision, but one becoming more clear every time a player of Justin Holl’s ability, or worse, signs for more money. (Although I still don’t defend the decision, merely understand it, because I believe Holl could have been replaced in-house).
Nothing changed at the draft either, as Dubas kept the team intact and made a few picks to the liking of prospect analysts, as per usual. Afterwards, Dubas stated to the media his intention to prioritize finding a partner for Jack and filling the holes on left-wing. Expectations of major trades and a Dougie Hamilton signing tampered.
He stuck to his word, and although the new team members don’t call for the parade, I believe they’re worth being optimistic about (if you still choose to invest your emotions into the Leafs). Let’s look at the significant signings so far.
Petr Mrázek
Dubas stressed the need for a tandem. Not a goalie that commands the starter position, but a 1B willing to support Jack Campbell. Petr Mrázek’s mutual interest and track record make him the perfect match. He started in only 12 games last season due to an injury (thumb surgery) but appeared in 40 games in each of the previous two seasons.
Mrázek also happened to offer the most value above the cost. He comes in a tad more than he might be worth, $3.8 million AAV, but he owns the fourth-highest goals saved above expected (GSAx), 17.32, over the last three seasons (according to Evolving-Hockey) - the most relevant stat when assessing goalies because it removes circumstance. Darcy Kuemper, an alternative option, owns fifth best, but he cost a first-round pick and a prospect. Freddy Andersen’s GSAx during the same time is -12.54, 86th in the league, and he was given a $4.5 million AAV. Mrázek, 29, is younger than both. Ullmark and Grubauer cost at least $5 million each, and now the Leafs have two starters for around the same price total.
Mrázek manages success with his aggressive style using athleticism, similar to Jack. They both seem to trust their instinct and will abandon form when they think they have to. I’m not a goalie expert, but Jack’s style worked exceptionally well behind the Leafs’ defence. It’s also worth noting Andersen’s cool and collected approach struggled mightily on the penalty kill, while Jack’s did not.
I have always had a soft sport for Mrázek, too. I’ve followed the players that have come up through Detroit more closely than other teams because of my personal connections to the city. Then he made this save (below), while I was sitting a few rows up around the hash marks - the most memorable save I saw live.
It’s yet to be known if Campbell or Mrázek can be the Vasilevskiy to a cup-winning team, but Jack appeared on his way had the Leafs beat the Habs, and Mrazek managing workload will at least help Jack repeat form come playoff time next year.
Michael Bunting
If Dubas can find Hyman once, he can do it again, right? Bunting, a late bloomer into the NHL like Hyman, is being touted as a tenacious forechecker and net-driver, like Hyman.
Even better - he’s said to have an edge similar to Brad Marchand. I think most can agree the element of peskiness has been missed since Kadri’s departure.
Bunting isn’t going to become Marchand, and even filling the shoes of Hyman is a tall task - but I think he’s capable, and then some. When reviewing his goals from last season I noticed he has more speed and skill to offer.
I love this goal:
Bunting flies off the boards in the neutral zone during what looks like a set zone entry. Even in coverage, he receives a pass in motion and beats the defender at the blue line on his way to a breakaway. His speed is too much for Colorado’s tight neutral zone forecheck, and the goalie. Plays like this could play dividends improving the Leafs’ transition game.
Here’s another example of transition speed. He doesn't stop moving his feet, giving the Vegas defender (Theodore) no chance. Another break, and with the puck barely hanging onto his stick, he shows incredible poise to finish the play.
Here’s an example of his hands in tight:
Almost all of his other goals come by deflection. His shooting percentage is sure to drop but he didn’t score 10 goals in 21 games by fluke. He has the drive to recover pucks and the speed, shot, and skill to produce.
At $900K for two seasons, I love this bet for the Leafs.
David Kämpf
Who? For how much? Leafs Nation collectively rose their eyebrows when an unknown player grabbed $1.5 million of the team’s remaining cap space. Dubas must have known something others didn’t - a few days later, the Leafs were still able to add Kaše and Ritchie, and Kämpf’s role is clearer.
I was first encouraged when I heard Dubas mention he’d been trying to acquire Kämpf for a while. When someone smarter than me is sure about the impact of a player, I’ll listen.
To be frank, I cannot break it down better than Jack Han.
According to Han, Kämpf has the tangible skills to excel in a shutdown role, mainly, because he plays on top of the puck.
Kämpf lacks in points but he can thrive at supporting his teammate’s offence while keeping the puck out of the net. He was Chicago’s second most effective penalty killer last season, especially good at preventing zone entires.
His transition game is not too shabby either. He had a respectable carry-in% above 60%, according to Cory Sznajder’s data, making him a fit with several players in the Leafs’ lineup.
Han suggests pairing Kämpf with players in need of some coverage so they can excel at what they are best at - like Bonino supported Carl Haglin and Phil Kessel. Perhaps this is an opportunity for Robertson to grow into his potential on the third line?
Ondřej Kaše and Nick Ritchie
A few days later, the night and morning of July 30th/31st, Dubas doubled down on forward depth. Ondřej Kaše at $1.25 million for one year and Nick Ritchie at $2.5 million for two years.
Two different, but low-risk players with top-six upside. Kaše has struggled with injuries, but not his play - he’s an analytical darling on the ice. Ritchie coming off a career year 15 goals, has steadily increased his on-ice impacts on both ends of the ice and will contribute to the committee replacing Hyman’s impact as a 6'2, 230-pound power forward.
I can see both players playing anywhere in the lineup, including the powerplay. Ondřej Kaše could be a playmaker on the second unit, while Ritchie can create space in the slot for either unit. Add Bunting into the mix and the Leafs’ will have two strong units on paper striving to improve on their greatest weakness from last season.
Most notably, Nick Ritchie has a game seven-winning goal. Ritchie demonstrates offensive awareness in the frame below, getting open around the slot, and giving the Ducks a 2-1 lead in the third.
Is this good enough?
Absolutely - it took more time, and more transactions, but Leafs’ fans have their source of hope after all.
Dubas’s different approach to the offseason stems from his belief in the core, on offence and defence. It might sound crazy, but what he’s been building has only just begun to form.
It took time to build a defence to his liking. The top four as they are, with talented youngsters behind them, have only had one shot at winning a round and were certainly not the downfall of the team, so as frustrating as it is, the defence is keeping the window wide open.
The offence has struggled to convert regular-season success to the playoffs, but perhaps Dubas believes it’s not a missing piece causing the error, instead, something wrong with the process internally - such as using inefficient tactics or deployment strategies. I would agree. Maybe he just thinks a 60-goal scorer and 90-point winger can figure it out on their own - fair enough.
On these assumptions, why would Dubas make big investments - while still waiting for those of the past to pay off - when small ones can have the same effect.
Even so, this roster is better than last year. With younger and faster players, they have more suitable lineup combinations than ever in addition to an upgrade in net. If both goalies stay healthy, the Leafs will have themselves in playoff contention by the trade deadline, with space to add.
Top photo courtesy of Andrew Francis Wallace / Toronto Star
Stats courtesy of naturalstatrick.com and evolving-hockey.com
Analytics visuals courtesy of Jfresh hockey and Corey Szanjder